Political Calculations & Bowles - Simpson

While we may be preculded from discussing the specifics of the defict commission's proposals, I can still talk about how it will be recieved, politically.

And you don't need any advanced degree to see how this is going to play out, all you need is to have paid attention since 1994.

Here's the calculation: the politics of this proposal were determined by the Democrats' reaction to it. Even though folks in both the Democratic caucus and the GOTP disagreed with it initially, the GOTP will now begin to erase any previous statements of dismay and focus on the Dems' outright hostility to the thing.

Even as the GOTP will "disagree with specifics" in the proposal, they are "at least" considering the long term problem of government spending itself into insolvency and leveraging debt on the backs of America's next generations.

The Democrats, and all their pundits, and anyone who agrees with them on any issue, will be responsible for rejecting this attempt at bi-partisan solutions out of hand. No one will pay attention to the many GOTP and right-wing folks who's knee-jerk reaction to this was also to reject it out of hand, because the Democrats are now the "Party of No."

See? It isn't the GOTP that is being needlessly hyperbolic and partisan! The Democrats are obstructing American progress, just like they always do! Now that the Dems have rejected what will eventually be called a fine attempt at bipartisan solution-finding, the GOTP will be free to take the bits and peices of what will eventually be called an excellent piece of bipartisan legislation that reflect only their priorities and try to make those into law.

The olive branch was offered, it will be said, and the Democrats roundly rejected it in favor of "business as usual."

Please note that this entire scenario would be exactly opposite if the Democrats had come out immediately in favor of Bowles - Simpson. Then, this legislation would reflect the most egregious socialist reconstruction of United States debt structure in modern history. It would be a brutal and out-of-touch attack on the American Middle-Class. The American People (tm) would spend a great deal of time talking only to their Republican and Tea Party representatives expressing dismay at the proposal.

This would be especially true if President Obama had been in favor of the proposal.

What makes me really angry about this, as a Democratic voter, is that the GOTP is already moving to own this debate. Their plan was to own this debate, no matter which way their calculations took them. The Dems, on the other hand, offered up a few various opinions, heard that everyone disagreed with it, and thought that was it. They are now sitting in a chair, back turned, thinking everything is over, unaware of the approaching baseball bat behind them. It is like watching a horror movie sequel. Because this happens again and again.

They will be needlessly confused and split when the inevitable hit lands. The first look on their face, after searing pain, will be "we're still talking about this?" Once they figure out what is happening, and they scramble for a response, the GOTP and their media machines will have already set the terms for the debate, and again Democrats will end up defending themselves against some sort of deficit-death-panel narrative that makes no sense.

(Which is also why I don't think Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid should be in charge anymore. The Democrats haven't even gaveled out this session of Congress, and already the next group of GOTP lawmakers are being given a substantive political victory on a policy they half disagree with. If that doesn't encapulate the whole experience of being a Democratic voter in this day and age, I don't know what else does.)

Bonus Calculation: If the GOTP does get parts of this legislation passed, and the President actually signs it, it will happen only because Obama is "trying to fool The American People (tm)" and "biding his time" to spring his socialist trap after re-election. (OMG TEH SOCIALIZMS!)

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