Twelve Years

The next time the Democratic Party is able to name a Speaker of the US House of Representitives will be in 2023 at the earliest. Thus are the results of abandoning state parties and allowing the GOP to manage the congressional redistricting process in a majority of the United States.

And remember, that 2023 number is at the earliest. That's if the Democrats figure out right now the importance of reasonable districts, make that an issue with voters, and deliver on those promises. I don't expect that to happen.

Unfortunately, there are too many national Democratic representatives who like consolidating likely Democratic voters in their own districts and protecting their own job security. They will continue to allow the more numerous GOP to draw Democratic voters out of the more numerous Republican districts. While they will keep thier jobs (for a time) their actions effectively kneecap any chance Democrats have to put some of those other districts into play in general elections.

This is why I laugh at those Democrats, Liberals, and Progressives who are gnashing their teeth over Obama's "surrender" on the debt ceiling. The President is a pragmatist, a realist, and got the best deal he was able to get out of an undefeatable, stark raving mad Republican and Tea Party controlled Congress. And the reason he has to make deals like that is because too many of his party's House caucus surrendered the states to the GOP years ago.

That's why next year's "Mediscare" campaign isn't going to swing control of the Congress. And if that doesn't work, the Dems are out of political options. If voters in the majority of Congressional districts don't like their incumbent, they're going to choose another Republican in the Primary.

And what's really going to bake your noodle is the effect this will have on Senate and Presidential elections. The greatest voter turnout occurs when voters believe they have a form of agency, and that their vote matters. If Democratic voters live in a GOP district, and there is no credible Dem challenger, they are less likely to go to the polls and pull the lever for other offices. It may not make much of a difference, but in a country as evenly divided as this one, it could make all the difference.

I read an article the other day that was as much science-fiction as it was political. It was about Nancy Pelosi plotting her return to the Speaker's chair. I wonder if she realizes she'll likely have to serve in Congress for 20 more years before she even sniffs another chance. My money says Pelosi, Hoyer, and Clyburn will be retired Congress long before the next time the Dems choose a Speaker.

.

Everybody's Doing It

Gerrymandering, I mean redistricting, is going on across the country. You'll notice how little the actual opinions of the voters comes into play in this analysis. The only time that matters is if the voters get angry at blatant redistricting overreach. Everything else makes it sound like a bunch of horse tradin'.

And, no, I still don't think Democrats will win control of Congress for the next decade, precisely for this reason.

(HT: Peach Pundit.)

.

Actions & Words

Hey, look! Ridiculous words lead to ridiculous actions.

I wonder what all these jokers are going to do when their own state government has to let Obama on the ballot because he has all the paperwork proving he was born in Hawaii? This won't end there, because it isn't really about the integrity of elections, it is about demagoguery and Obama being labled "other."

If it were about integrity of elections, they'd be talking about the ridiculous way this country handles redistricting.

Update: I wonder how much her veto of this bill will hurt Jan Brewer's reelection chances?

.

The Gerrymander Rages

While losing population always corresponds with losing representation, I am ashamed that the paper is focusing more on the incumbent battles than on how these districts were drawn. Because these districts make little logical sense unless your purpose is to intentionally split communities and dilute voting strength.

And I'm thinking, specifically:

We've got a curlicue up in District 90, which earns it an autodouchematic dishonorable mention. Not sure what neighborhood that represents, but I assume we're not looking at pure intentions there.

But the number one spots for insane district drawing is quite evident in the neighborhood and community splitting boundaries of Orleans Parish districts 91,93,95,96,97 & 98.

And this is going to happen nation-wide, y'all. This will further secure one-party rule in many states, and does not bode well for congressional redistricting. There is a structural reason I think the US House will remain in GOP hands for at least the next 9 years - they are the ones drawing writing the rules, at this point.

.

Let the Big Gerrymander Eat

I'm very glad the Daily Dish has taken an interest in this issue. Hopefully the more interest is generated, the more examples of this nature will come to light.

And when that happens, we step closer to more reasonable solutions.

Because it is high time we started talking about them.

.

Drawing Them Out

MSNBC front-pages the political consequences of Gerrymandering.

What alarms me the most is the casual nature at which this report discusses the ramifications of Gerrymandering. That, and the quick dismissal of the 2004 SCOTUS case that says Gerrymandering to protect incumbency or by political geography is legal. While some folks might pretend that issue into dismissal, Down South, we all know what that means.

Of course, the way we do things right now, certainly has its defenders.

More on this Here, and here.

.

When Gerrymanders Attack

Unlike ACORN, the New Black Panther Party and mythical voting patterns of illegal immigrants, Gerrymandering is a real threat to electoral legitimacy in this nation. It depresses participation in the political process, protects incumbents and incentivizes political extremes. Just looking at the districts, as drawn, exposes incredible absurdity to the situation.

Yet, it is a situation downplayed by the political and media castes. You have to wonder why that is.

If you are interested in "taking back your country" or making any improvements to State or National political systems, you're going to need to educate yourself on this continuing problem.

Slate has an old slideshow on some of the more ridiculous districts out there, and the Daily Dish is taking note and displaying the evidence.

Thought most of the Dish information comes from readers writing in.

Now, before you get all up in my grill about how most of those terrible districts are represented by Democrats, consider this:

In Georgia, Republicans are complaining about Congressional District 2, because it is a competitive district, and the GOP candidate just barely lost. District 2 was created by the GOP legislature after they threw out the terrible districts drawn by the previous Democratic legislature. If you look at a a map of Georgia Congressional districts (PDF) you can see that District 2 was drawn specifically to concentrate black (ie: Democratic) voters and increase the access to suburban and exurban Atlanta (ie: white, Republican) voters to as many districts as possible.

Those of you not from Georgia may be questioning how that is the case, as district 2 is a big and contiguous bloc, with few -manderish traits apparent. Look towards the northwest and southeast parts of this district, and you start to see the proof in the pudding. Columbus, Georgia, the state's 3rd largest city, is locaded in Muscogee County (northwest). Valdosta, Georgia, a medium sized city with a large minority population, is located in Lowndes County (southeast). District 2 cleaves both counties in half.

Guess what neighborhoods ended up where. I'll not even get into how district 2 cuts down the Dougherty County line, dividing the city of Albany and this area's western neighborhoods away from the area's eastern suburbs (in district 8, that goes all the way up to suburban Atlanta, represented by a Republican).

So, before anyone gets into how the Civil Rights Act of 1964 isn't still relevant today, you don't have to look far to see why we still have to have it on the books. Because these Republicans, who designed district 2 to be the Democratic minority seat, are now complaining about district 2 being won by a Democratic minority vote.

.